US intel says war on Iran has not set back Iran's nuclear programme: Report
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Tue, 05/05/2026 - 16:41
US assessment of Iran's timeline to make a nuclear bomb is still roughly one year, despite two months of war
A man holds a poster of late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, and his son Ayatollah Mojataba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, during a rally to show solidarity with the new leadership, in Tehran, on 29 April 2026 (AFP)
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The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused only “minimal damage” to Iran’s nuclear programme, meaning that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, according to a US intelligence assessment reported by Reuters.
US intelligence agencies had assessed that before the US’s June 2025 attack, Iran could likely produce enough bomb-grade uranium for a weapon and build a bomb in around three to six months, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing two sources.
As a result of the US bombing the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes, US intelligence pushed back their timeline from about nine months to a year. Despite the US and Israel pummelling Iran for over two months, that timeline remains unchanged, Reuters reported.
The war on Iran started on 28 February as the Trump administration was negotiating with Tehran over its nuclear programme.
The impact of US strikes on Iran’s nuclear programme has long been in doubt. Just before launching the war, President Donald Trump boasted that the programme had been“obliterated” by the June 2025 attack.
At the time, Trump signalled that the operation, dubbed "Midnight Hammer", drew a curtain on the Iranian nuclear saga and that he was moving on.
“We may sign an agreement…I don't care if I have an agreement or not…We destroyed the nuclear… It’s blown up to kingdom come. I don’t care very strongly about it,” he said, when asked if he planned to restart nuclear negotiations in the summer of 2025.
The battlefield damage assessment of the US strikes from June was hotly debated at the time.
Trump’s own Pentagon contradicted his claim that the programme had been annihilated, saying the US strikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites set Iran back up to two years. That timeline is double what Reuters reported on Monday.
The Reuters report underscores how Israeli and US strikes have been unable to substantially alter Iran’s nuclear timeline. Experts tell Middle East Eye that the US would need to offer substantial sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for an agreement on its nuclear programme.
The US has provided different justifications for its attack on Iran, from defending protesters to destroying the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile arsenal and, again, destroying its nuclear programme.
'They cannot have a nuclear weapon'
In an interview aired on Tuesday with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump downplayed the issue of ballistic missiles and again cited Iran’s nuclear programme.
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“Look, missiles are bad, but yeah, and they do have to cap it, but this is about they cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
Trump added that as part of any deal to end the war with Iran, the US wanted to remove its highly enriched uranium stockpile.
The US and Israeli attacks on Iran since 28 February have largely focused on its conventional military, government institutions and industrial base, although Israel has bombed a number of nuclear facilities.
Iran built up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium after Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The JCPOA granted Iran sanctions relief in return for capping its nuclear enrichment to 3.67 percent and opening the country’s facilities up to stringent United Nations inspections. Trump imposed debilitating sanctions on Iran after leaving the deal.
In response, Tehran accelerated its programme, acquiring a stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium. Iran insists that its programme is for peaceful purposes, and the country’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a fatwa, or religious decree, against nuclear weapons.
Some experts say that Iran walked a thin line to remain a nuclear threshold state, leaving the option open to creating a nuclear weapon.
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