Experts warn ‘damage already done’ to food production from Hormuz closure
The UN has warned that the road back to normal food production will be long and arduous even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately due to the impact on fertiliser supplies that pass through the channel.
“If the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately … the impact would be significantly positive - but incomplete and uneven,” Maximo Torero, the chief economist of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), told AFP.
“The FAO is clear that damage has already been done,” he added.
Torero also warned that “infrastructure damage” sustained during the conflict “is not fully reversible in the short term”.
Around 1.9 million tonnes of fertiliser are currently trapped on 41 vessels, according to Kpler data - the equivalent to 12 percent of all produce shipped out of the Strait in 2024.
The FAO said that about one third of urea (fertiliser) trade has been blocked off, and it forecasts that global fertiliser prices could average 15-20 percent higher in the first half of 2026.
The effects of this shortage will be felt unevenly, with some countries that are more reliant on Gulf fertilisers being affected more significantly, such as India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Turkey, where lower harvest yields are expected because planting seasons have been missed.
India has already increased subsidies for farming fertilisers by 11 percent from last year due to surging prices sparked by the Iran war.
An Indian farmer sprinkles fertiliser on crops in a field on the outskirts of Amritsar on 9 April 2026 (Narinder Nanu/AFP)